March 6, 2015

NYT: "Scott Walker’s Electoral Record Is Less Impressive Than It Looks."

The headline for this Nate Cohn column at the NYT intriguingly assumes we're already seeing something about Scott Walker, but I think the basis for the debunking is that Walker himself keeps pointing out that a blue state, Wisconsin, has elected him governor 3 times in 4 years.

Cohn has a chart comparing Walker to other candidates for governor in 2010 and 2014, the years of Walker's regular elections. (Walker also had to win in June 2012, midway through his first term, because there was a recall election.)
In neighboring and politically similar Iowa, the Republican Terry Branstad won election and re-election by a far wider margin than Mr. Walker.

To the east, in neighboring Michigan, Gov. Rick Snyder won by a similar margin in a more Democratic state, even though he also picked a fight with labor.

To the south, a Republican candidate for governor won the dark-blue state of Illinois.

Farther away, Republicans won Ohio by a huge margin and carried states more Democratic than Wisconsin, like New Mexico, Maryland, Maine and Massachusetts.
That is, it might not be anything so special about Walker. People in blue states might just have been hankering for Republican governance in 2010 and 2014.

Cohn branches out to senatorial preferences:
There’s even a case that Mr. Walker didn’t have the best Republican performance in Wisconsin. Ron Johnson, a self-funded political novice, managed to defeat an incumbent, Russ Feingold, by a five-point margin in 2010. Despite that showing, some analysts believe Mr. Johnson is the single most vulnerable senator of the 2016 cycle.
That is, people were really leaning Republican in 2010, and you can't predict that 2016 will be another election year like that. What was going on with that 2010 senatorial election in Wisconsin? Why did Ron Johnson have "the best Republican performance in Wisconsin"? I think that was "a vote against what the Democrats have done with Congress," which is what I said on Election Day 2010. I guess in 2016, Feingold will have a "miss me yet?" argument against what the Republicans have done with Congress. But 2016, unlike 2010, is a presidential election, and our fixation on the presidency will keep us from thinking too much about Congress.

Which brings us back to Cohn. He observes that all 3 of Walker's victories came in non-presidential years, where Republicans get the advantage of lower turnout from the younger people who tend more toward Democrats. That is, Wisconsin is and remains a blue state, where Walker should lose, but elections are skewed in the off years.

51 comments:

AustinRoth said...

Walker obviously scares the Democrats and their allies very, very badly.

sinz52 said...

"That is, Wisconsin is and remains a blue state, where Walker should lose, but elections are skewed in the off years."

Cohn is being inconsistent.

Where the 2016 elections are concerned, there's no point in comparing Walker with other GOP governors.

The comparison should be between Walker and other *conservative GOP Presidential candidates*.

Does Cohn really think that Ted Cruz would have done better in those Blue States than Walker?

Walker is the most electable candidate that the right-wing has at this point. They like him, AND he has appeal beyond them.

Rand Paul definitely has appeal beyond the GOP base. But the GOP base wants to bomb Iran, and he doesn't.

David said...

Some truth to that. Walker could get the nomination and still prove to be an average candidate. It takes above average to win Presidential elections. The primaries will supply a partial test but you never know what you are going to get. Think Dukakis.

TreeJoe said...

Winning in 2010 was one thing, I'll grant. Democrats had horribly mis-managed Wisconsin and it was a year of Republican gains overall. Fine.

But with what Walker faced after that, there's no reason to compare his election to those others. It would have been difficult to win those subsequent elections if it was a mildly red state, let alone Wisconsin.

sojerofgod said...

I think what will be more fun to discuss is who will be the Democrat nominee? HRC is NOT going to make it obviously; She has too many in the press who normally would be covering for her spilling beans all over the carpet. Note how early in the process she is getting slammed. They want her OUT with plenty of time to get someone else rolling.
The problem seems to be though that there are few who have the stature to be a national candidate.
I wonder....

Fernandinande said...

The NYT is less impressive than it looks.

Mark said...

With complete Republican domination of the statehouse, we are a blue state?

Curious George said...

He also won back to back to back elections for County Executive in dark blue Milwaukee County. He has broad appeal. Not to fringe lunatics like garage, but to normal people, including Democrats.

Roger Sweeny said...

Massachusetts may have elected a Republican governor but he is kind of a Democrat Lite. The thought of him opposing collective bargaining for state employees is like the thought of President Obama appointing Professor Althouse to the Supreme Court.

Curious George said...

"Mark said...
With complete Republican domination of the statehouse, we are a blue state?"

Not any more. We're red. Walker and the GOP turned us red. And the couldn't have done it without help of morons like you and garage, and those idiots at DPofWI.

I'm sorry, we probably don't thank you enough.

MayBee said...

When a democrat wins, that really represents the people. A republican win is almost always due to a suppressed vote, not the true will of the people.

Gusty Winds said...

To the south, a Republican candidate for governor won the dark-blue state of Illinois.

Having fled DuPage Co IL last August to move my family to Waukesha Co WI, I can tell you there were plenty people looking North and wishing Scott Walker could be Illinois' governor.

My home in Elmhurst was devalued by the township 40% on the tax assessment between 2008 and 2013, but my property taxes went from $5K to $8K a year as the multiplier was just increased.

Without Walker's example that public sector unions can be successfully challenged, I really don't think Rauner would have been elected.

The only thing people in Illinois envy more than Scott Walker is Aaron Rodgers.

garage mahal said...

Cheating in every election going back to Marquette didn't hurt.

garage mahal said...

Marquette tried to warn us.

Michael K said...

"Cheating in every election going back to Marquette didn't hurt."

You can lead a horse('s ass) to water but you can't make him drink.

Except Koolaid.

Peter said...

I still think it's astonishing that a candidate as weak as Mary Burke got as many votes as she did.

Yes, I realize they were more "not Walker" votes than "pro Burke," but it's still astonishing.

MadisonMan said...

Rand Paul definitely has appeal beyond the GOP base.

Rand Paul is a Senator. Why would I vote for a Senator. They make lousy Presidents.

Gusty Winds said...

Cohn is also ignorant of how deep Wisconsin's liberal "Fighting Bob Lafollette" and Milwaukee's socialist Mayors tradition is seeded. Understanding this makes is hard to blow off the change Walker has brought to Wisconsin.

The Bradley-Daley Wisconsin Supreme Court election April 7 will be interesting because it will show if Wisconsin is still fighting on the 50 yard line, or really turning Red.

Waukesha Co is just sick and tired of Madisonian bullshit. They may turn out while April 7, while Milwaukee stays home.



garage mahal said...

You can lead a horse('s ass) to water but you can't make him drink.

Sure you can. Curious George guzzles the Walker kool-aid.

The Cracker Emcee Refulgent said...

Less impressive than Bark's? Hardly.

Goju said...

Isn't it funny that when a conservative wins an election, the liberals claim voter fraud....yet liberals oppose voter ID.

tim in vermont said...

"Calm down children, the bogeyman disturbing your dreams isn't that scary."

MartyH said...

Hey Garage-

Just to let you know-they finally found the secret "routers" you spent the last few years looking for.

Turns out, Hillary had them all along!

garage mahal said...

Turns out, Hillary had them all along!

Sekkrit routers is probably the funniest joke of all time. LOL!

bleh said...

Walker also became enemy number one of the state's Democrats, as evidenced by the recall election. Despite all the money and energy that has gone into unseating him in a blue state, he has managed to keep the voters on his side. That's impressive.

Fending off thug unions is no easy task.

bleh said...

Maybe Wisconsin is only a bluish purple state. Indigo?

Ignorance is Bliss said...


Scott Walker’s Electoral Record Is Less Impressive Than It Looks.

538 disagrees

Sloanasaurus said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Sloanasaurus said...

For a quick comparison. Michigan's Turnout % for 2014, 2012, 2010 was 41.6%, 63%, 42.9%.

Wisconsin turn out for 2014, presidential 2012, and recall 2012 was: 56.5%, 70%, 57.8%.

So if you look at the metrics this way, Walker is winning reelection in a blue state with a much higher turn out. The decline in turnout in Wisconsin from the recall to president was only 12% while it was 21% in Michigan.

You can use whatever stats you want for these articles.

If the writer is correct that republicans do better in off years, then walker would have won by 15 point if turnout was only 42% like it was in Michigan.

But then who believes these turn out numbers and what do they actually mean?

mccullough said...

So Democrats are too lazy to vote in non-presidential election years.

An enterprising reporter would dig into the reasons behind this. Start with the observation that 2/3 of the military are Republicans. Why don't Democrats serve in the military at the same rate as Republicans?

A lot of stories out there.

Rich B said...

Ann -

Your continuing reliance on the NYT reflects badly on your judgement.

traditionalguy said...

Walker is not Ivy League. He is an actual evangelical Christian. He wants to defend the Jewish State Israel. He wants to downsize the Dem's and Establishment GOP's beloved Mega Goobermint Uber Alles in DC. That is what makes him unacceptable.

But the hit pieces hired to be published daily now are unable to say that about Walker. They are left weak praising him for a quick start that ends by assuring his demise when he meets real Big Boy political attacks. Why you will look for him but he will shrink away.


D.E. Cloutier said...

BDNYC: "Fending off thug unions is no easy task."

Thug unions are easy to beat when you stop acting like gentlemen.

How do I know? Experience (with 15 former U.S. Marines and 10 former Hispanic gang members on my side).

- DEC (Jungle Trader)

HoodlumDoodlum said...

"Less impressive than it looks?" I wonder if that's how Cohn (or his headline writer) consoles himself when thinking about the genitals of the man his girlfriend dumped him for. "Sure, he seems like a stud, he's plowing her all the time, and she never stops smiling, but I'll bet he's less impressive than he looks."
I'm warming to this Walker fellow, he seems to make the right enemies and provoke in them real fear.

holdfast said...

Rand Paul definitely has appeal beyond the GOP base.

Most of his support is entirely outside the GOP, but will those guys put down the bong long enough to go to the polls?

d-day said...

Except off-year elections typically show higher liberal/Democrat turnout, according to studies, likely due to get-out-the-vote efforts by unions, efforts for which the right lacks an analogue.

jr565 said...

Is Scott walkers record less impressive than Obamas senatorial record? Or his record prior to coming to office?
So dems, we've already heard the excuses why having a thin record isn't in and of itself grounds for disqualification.
So. Let's not have them now dredge up more of the same old same old.

Sebastian said...

NYT put-downs are a good sign for Walker (though so far they are using their ammo on all GOP hopefuls).

As others have noted, the relevant comparison is with other candidates in the actual race. Walker did well to win and hold WI and to beat the unions. On overall conservative record in bigger and more important states, Bush and Perry are superior. Doesn't necessarily make them more desirable to primary voters, but will become a bigger factor.

wildswan said...

Two Views of the 2016 Election

The Democrats have now swept so much dirt under the carpet that there is an elephant-sized bump there which will morph into a successful Republican candidate in 2016. The Republicans will win because the Democrats will sicken everyone. Democratic states should be known as blue-dress states.

or

Corruption is and always will be the name of the game and Hil/Bill will always win a game of that name.

Sam L. said...

NYT's just jealous.

bbkingfish said...

Yep.

bbkingfish said...

We are in the early stages of the long, slow march to Jeb 2016.

They loved Walker in Iowa, but he peaked about 1-1/2 years too soon.

Who's up next? Ben Carson?

Biff said...

I must have missed the NYT headline from 2007: "Barack Obama’s Legislative Record Is Less Impressive Than It Looks."

On the bright side, I'm sure we can expect a "NYT: "Hillary Clinton’s Accomplishments Are Less Impressive Than They Look" article, any day now, to be followed up by an "Elizabeth Warren’s Record Is Less Impressive Than It Looks" piece.

Mark said...

And now it comes out that Walker made up that 'gut like a deer' threat he likes to repeat.

Either that or at the time it was deemed so non-credible it was not recorded the way many others were.

The house of cards is starting to fall on Walker ....

http://host.madison.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/no-record-found-of-graphic-threat-targeting-first-lady-tonette/article_17d93cf5-c7f3-5d38-8cb3-42f4a2d1cf60.html

Michael K said...

"I'm warming to this Walker fellow, he seems to make the right enemies and provoke in them real fear."

"The house of cards is starting to fall on Walker ...."

Yup.

The Godfather said...

OK, I reluctantly accept that Scott Walker doesn't walk on water.

The Godfather said...

In Walkewinnr I see a candidate who is capable of focusing on issues that are, or can be, issues that appeal to base Republicans, moderates, and independents. So far, I haven't seen anyone else that can do that.

I'm very impressed that Christie was not only able to be elected in NJ, but to govern there. What I don't see is how that translates to a national election.

Jeb was a good governor of a large and diverse state (a red state, but not bright red). But he's tied to positions on education and immigration that will turn off the Republican base. We know how well that strategy worked in 2008 and 2012.

Unknown said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Unknown said...

---Either that or at the time it was deemed so non-credible it was not recorded the way many others were.

Or there were so many they couldn’t keep them straight.

Or the Democrat friendly Madison police force slow walked the investigations



http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013/11/13/wisconsin-gov-walker-reveals-violence-death-threats-in-upcoming-autobiography/

"Each time you look in the mirror you see a dead man," one undated and unsigned email said. "Your days are numbered."

One email sent March 21, 2011, said there was a bomb in Walker's office.

"You better shape up and quit changing the law or you will die and kids to if you have any and will be dead," the message said.

Another email sent to Walker on March 11, 2011, said, "If anyone deserves a bullet in the head, it is you and your ilk."


Read more: http://host.madison.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/records-show-death-threats-made-to-scott-walker-in-last/article_b62c7fd8-5e9b-11e2-a3df-001a4bcf887a.html#ixzz3TfaVJS6P


Dozens of emails suggest Walker or legislators should be shot or hanged, or should watch their backs, look over their shoulders or resign. One man tweeted that he prayed an anvil would fall from the sky onto Walker.

FBI agents from Maine to California to Florida also got involved, the records show. A suspect in Maine was arrested after sending letters to that state's Republican U.S. senators suggesting that Walker should be killed and that all Republican governors resign.

A Burbank, Calif., resident who sent a long email rant offering a $50,000 bounty for Walker was interviewed by federal agents who determined he was mentally challenged and not a true threat.

Police in Nebraska tracked down a man who posted to a Wisconsin man's Facebook page that he expected the shooting to start soon and that he would be ready to inflict nonlethal shots so others could hear screams.

He told officers he got "carried away," didn't intend to harm anyone and has never been to Wisconsin.

Only one person has been charged so far with making threats, Katherine R. Windels, 26, of Cross Plains.

The records indicate, however, that a 37-year-old state Department of Corrections officer assigned to Milwaukee was arrested on charges of disorderly conduct alleging a verbal threat to shoot Walker in March. It does not appear from state court records that he was ever formally charged.

http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/121721234.html

Seventeen Republican Senators in addition to Republican Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald received the email threat that stated they should put their "things in order because you will be killed and your families also will be killed."

The email, which in the subject said "Atten: Death threat!!!! Bomb!!!!," was sent at 9:18 p.m. Wednesday, after the Senate, with Democrats absent, voted to eliminate most collective bargaining provisions for most public workers.

In addition, all of the Assembly Republicans, including Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald, received an email death threat about 10:30 Wednesday night, said John Jagler, a spokesman for Jeff Fitzgerald. That email stated "Vote no and save your life."

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/117738098.html

------Tonight, liberal Twitter users are openly advocating the assassination of Gov. Scott Walker:

http://twitchy.com/2012/06/06/kill-scott-walker-angry-libs-flood-twitter-with-death-threats-after-wisconsin-recall-defeat/

https://twitter.com/xPureeSCRUB_/status/210218851428868096

https://twitter.com/DONTTouchTheFRO/status/210192390135365634

https://twitter.com/__SupaMcNASTY__/status/210192995306311681

https://twitter.com/__SupaMcNASTY__/status/210195542762983424

https://twitter.com/SeXXX_Symbol_/status/210189959297105920

Just a peaceful protest, no pictures of Walker with moustaches or a crosshair scope on hime anywhere.

Mark said...

Hilarious. You dont mention a single one of threats against Democrats.

Erpenbach got the second largest number of threats, a fact you conveniently ignore.

The Washington press is going to eat this story up. Enjoy.

Brown Hornet said...

Democrats keep underestimating Walker. I often hear (from lib Dems) how smart and sophisticated lib Dems are, but they sure look and act like slow learners.